How Will The PD-L1 Test Market Develop?

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The significant interest shown in the Diaceutics webinar How Can Analytics Help Avoid the PD-L1 Chaos: 10 Years of Insights is evidence of the widespread impact PD-L1 testing is already having on personalized medicine. Many of the issues surrounding PD-L1 that are discussed in the webinar have been seen in previous biomarker programs, but for the first time we have been able to track the clinical and competitive impact.

The webinar discussed the potential hyperconnectivity of the biomarker and looked to the next few years of test market development. Diaceutics were able to make predictions to 2020 about areas such as adoption, integration in NSCLC, financial dynamics and prescriber behaviour. This was made possible by employing real time observations gathered from analogues, laboratory data, diagnostic information and competitive intelligence.

In addition, an AntiPD-1 longitudinal prescriber panel of 30 Opdivo/Keytruda prescribers was set up to obtain first hand opinions on their interface with testing. This approach has enabled Diaceutics to predict trends based on a hectic first few years of PD-L1 testing market development and an increasingly dynamic landscape moving forward.

Despite the uncertainties hanging over the first generation of diagnostic tests, Diaceutics believes the landscape will develop to require ever more PD-L1 testing and that PD-L1 will become a hyperconnected oncology biomarker led by NSCLC.

With NSCLC prescribers already prescribing PD-L1 testing with ALK, EGFRm and KRAS, regardless of guidelines, and combining PD-L1 testing with ALK, etc., it seems likely that PD-L1 will fit alongside more established biomarkers and become more integrated. And yet this is only one year after launch, when PD-L1 testing is at the beginning of its journey to clinical relevance in oncology but is, relatively speaking, already more integrated into oncology clinical trials than other biomarkers were 18 months post-launch.

The Anti PD-1 therapy class of drugs could make $32bn per annum but much of this expected revenue depends upon the still underdeveloped PD-L1 testing market. It will be interesting to observe the PD-L1 space as it develops and the impact of the biomarker is felt, but it will be equally interesting to keep track of our predictions. Some of them are already being proved right.

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